According to HSBC, India and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) economies are projected to achieve 6.5% average per capita GDP growth over 2023-2026. Among these nations, India is projected to achieve the highest per-capita GDP growth at 8.7%, while china is forecasted to achieve the lowest per-capita GDP growth at 3.9%. Strong growth opportunities exist in India and ASEAN economies due to their young populations, growing middle classes, and technological advancements. While several economies are projected to grow fast, others face slower growth due to economic slowdown and global challenges.
Projected Per-Capita GDP Growth of India and Major ASEAN Economies
The table below presents the projected Per-Capita GDP growth rate of India and major ASEAN Economies.
| Country | Average Per-Capita GDP Growth over 2023–2026 |
|---|---|
| India | 8.70% |
| Philippines | 8.70% |
| Indonesia | 6.70% |
| Malaysia | 5.70% |
| Thailand | 5.40% |
| Singapore | 5.30% |
| Vietnam | 4.70% |
| Japan | 4.10% |
| China | 3.90% |
Source: CEIC, HSBC Global Private Banking
Other data used in this post, such as GDP growth and per capita income, is sourced from the IMF.
India and the Philippines Projected to Have the Highest Growth
India is projected to have the highest average per capita GDP growth rate among Asian countries from 2023 to 2026. As the world’s fifth-largest economy by GDP, India is experiencing a strong 6.5% GDP growth rate. Additionally, India’s GDP per capita is estimated at $2940, which is relatively lower than many Asian countries such as China. However, its average per capita GDP growth rate is projected to be the highest in 2023-2026. India’s fast growth shows its growing importance in the global economy. This growth is supported by its young population, expanding middle class, and advances in digital exports.
Philippines is also projected to achieve the highest per-capita gdp growth among ASEAN Member States. The country was the fastest growing in SouthEast asia in 2023. In 2025, with a real GDP growth rate of 5%, Philippines is growing faster than Indonesia, China, and Singapore.
China Growth is Lagging the Rest of Asia
China is the second-largest economy in the world after the United States, with a GDP per capita of around approximately $13,870. However, China is expected to experience the lowest average per-capita GDP growth rate among Asian nations between 2023-2026.
This slowdown is partly due to challenges like China’s property market crises, an aging population, and declining birth rates. Additionally, China faces issues such as weaker exports, rising debt levels, and the impact of strict regulations on key sectors like technology and real estate. These factors combined are making it harder for China to sustain its decades-long rapid economic growth.
Additionally, Japan, the fourth-largest economy in the world, is also among the countries with the lowest average GDP per capita growth in Asia. The country’s slow economic growth, at around 1.1%, high debt level, and demographic challenges such as an aging population and low birth rates are the key factors responsible for its slow growth.
Indonesia and Malaysia are also among the top countries in Asia with projected high per capita GDP growth rates over 2023-2026. The high per-capita GDP growth in these countries is largely driven by their young and growing populations, increasing domestic consumption, and steady investments in infrastructure.
Conclusion
India and ASEAN economies are projected to achieve 6.5% average per capita GDP growth over 2023-2026. Among these nations, India and Philippines are set to achieve the highest per-capita growth, while China is forecasted to experience the lowest per-capita growth. Additionally, countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore are projected to achieve a per-capita GDP growth greater than 5%.
Add Comment