The Great Powers Index 2024 by Ray Dalio analyzes 24 major countries across four key dimensions, including strength, health, happiness, and economic growth prospects. These indicators are assessed through GDP, world trade share, life expectancy, and chronic disease rates, among others. Based on these factors, the Great Power Index estimated the real growth rates of the major 24 countries. These countries include China, India, the US, the UK, Japan, Canada, Hungary, Poland, and Russia, among others.
Among these countries, India is projected to see the highest real growth over the next ten years, which is about 6%. Additionally, Germany and Italy are projected to see negative growth rates of -0.5%.
Major Economies Estimated Real Growth Rates
The table below presents the estimated real growth rates of major countries over the next 10 years.
| Country | Real growth rates over the next 10 years |
|---|---|
| 🇮🇳 India | 6.3% |
| 🇦🇪 UAE | 5.5% |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 5.5% |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | 4.6% |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | 4.0% |
| 🇨🇳 China | 4.0% |
| 🇷🇺 Russia | 2.9% |
| 🇵🇱 Poland | 2.9% |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | 2.9% |
| 🇸🇬 Singapore | 2.6% |
| 🇲🇽 Mexico | 2.5% |
| 🇨🇱 Chile | 2.4% |
| 🇸🇪 Sweden | 2.3% |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 2.1% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 2.0% |
| 🇮🇪 Ireland | 1.9% |
| 🇭🇺 Hungary | 1.9% |
| 🇨🇿 Czech Republic | 1.9% |
| 🇰🇷 South Korea | 1.8% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 1.7% |
| 🇺🇸 U.S. | 1.4% |
| 🇬🇧 UK | 1.3% |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 1.2% |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | 1.2% |
| 🇨🇦 Canada | 1.2% |
| 🇵🇹 Portugal | 1.1% |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | 0.9% |
| 🇫🇷 France | 0.9% |
| 🇪🇸 Spain | 0.3% |
| 🇨🇭 Switzerland | 0.2% |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | -0.5% |
| 🇮🇹 Italy | -0.5% |
Source: The Great Powers Index 2024
The economic strength of the countries is based on projected real growth rates over the next 10 years. Many advanced economies are expected to see their economies grow at a slower pace. This is largely because most of the advanced economies are dealing with a high debt-to-GDP ratio and slow productivity growth. On the other hand, emerging economies like India, Brazil, and China are predicted to attain a high growth rate in the next ten years. This means they’re getting better at making the most of their resource utilization.
United States
With a GDP of approximately $30 trillion, the United States is currently the leading global economic power, but it is slowly declining in strength. The economic strength of the United States is powered by key indicators such as strong capital markets, a robust financial system, a powerful military, and its status as the issuer of the world’s reserve currency. While the U.S. remains very strong across several key measures of power, these have gradually weakened over the past 20 years.
The U.S. economy is projected to grow at a modest rate of about 1.4% annually over the next decade. Compared to other major economies around the world, the US is growing slightly slower than the global average. The US ranks 22nd among 35 major economies and 4th among 17 developed countries.
China
With a GDP of approximately $18.53 trillion, China is currently the second most powerful economic force in the world. China’s economic strength is fueled by a number of factors, including strong infrastructure, importance in global trade, technological innovation, high education levels, and significant economic output. Over the last 20 years, China’s power has grown significantly, especially in areas like investment, innovation, education, and global trade. However, in recent years, China’s status as a financial center has declined.
China’s economy is expected to grow at a rate of around 4% annually over the next decade, which is much higher than the global average. The country is ranked 6th among 35 major economies and 6th among 18 emerging countries.
Germany
Germany, the world’s third-largest economy, is experiencing a decline in its long-term growth rate. The country’s real growth rate over the next 10 years is projected to be around -0.5%. This growth rate is far below the global average, ranking 34th out of 35 major economies and 16th out of 17 developed countries.
India
India is currently ranked 5th among major global economic powers based on a nominal GDP of over $3.94 trillion. The country’s strengths lie in its solid economic and financial position, cost-effective labor force, and vast human resources. However, India faces several challenges in innovation and technology, corruption, and rule of law. According to economic projections, India’s real growth rate over the next decade is expected to be around 6.3%. This high growth rate is higher than the global average, ranking it first among 35 major economies and 18 emerging nations.
Conclusion
Among major economies in the world, India is expected to have the highest real growth over the next ten years, around 6%. Moreover, countries like Indonesia, Turkey, China, and Saudi Arabia are also the fastest-growing major economies with high projected real GDP growth rates. On the other hand, in Europe, Germany and Italy are projected to face negative growth rates of -0.5% in major economies.
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