The United States and China are the two largest economies in the world. Over the past ten years, China’s economy has grown at a faster pace than the U.S., although its growth has slowed in recent years. From 2014 to 2024, China’s average real GDP growth rate was approximately 5.85%, more than double the U.S. average of 2.49%. Additionally, in 2020, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. economy contracted by 2.2%, whereas China managed to achieve a 2.2% growth. However, the U.S. remains the dominant global economy due to its highest GDP, strong financial markets, and advanced technology.
What is GDP growth rate?
GDP growth rate is a key economic metric when looking at the economic performance of countries. It measures the increase in the value of all goods and services produced in a country during one year. A high GDP growth rate indicates a thriving economy, while a low or negative growth rate signals economic challenges and downturns.
Comparing U.S. and China GDP Growth Rates
The table below presents the GDP growth rates of the U.S. and China from 2014 to 2024. Additionally, the table includes the projected GDP growth rates for both the U.S. and China in 2025.
| Year | 🇺🇸 U.S. (Real GDP growth rate) | 🇨🇳 China (Real GDP growth rate) |
|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 2.5% | 7.4% |
| 2015 | 2.9% | 7.0% |
| 2016 | 1.8% | 6.8% |
| 2017 | 2.5% | 6.9% |
| 2018 | 3.0% | 6.7% |
| 2019 | 2.6% | 6.0% |
| 2020 | -2.2% | 2.2% |
| 2021 | 6.1% | 8.4% |
| 2022 | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| 2023 | 2.9% | 5.2% |
| 2024 | 2.8% | 4.8% |
| 2025P | 2.2% | 4.5% |
The data is sourced from the International Monetary Fund.
This table shows that China’s growth rates have consistently been higher than the United States. The following discussion will look at the growth trends of both economies over the past decade.
The US GDP Growth Rate
The US economy grows steadily, but at a slower pace compared to China. Here’s a breakdown of its growth trends:
Steady Growth (2014–2019): During this period, the US grew at an average rate of around 2.5% per year. This growth was driven by strong consumer spending, a robust services sector, and technological innovation.
The Pandemic Shock (2020): In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic hit the US economy hard, causing the economy to shrink by 2.2%. Lockdowns, job losses, and reduced consumer spending were the main culprits of this negative growth rate.
The Strong Recovery (2021): Due to the massive government stimulus packages and rapid vaccine rollouts, the US economy rebounded strongly in 2021, growing at 6.1%. This was the highest growth rate in decades.
Return to Normal (2022–2025): In the post-pandemic era, the US growth rate has stabilized at around 2.5% to 2.9%.
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China’s GDP Growth
China’s economy, on the other hand, has been growing at a much faster pace compared to the U.S. However, it’s showing signs of slowing down in recent years.
Rapid Growth (2014–2019): During this period, China’s growth rates averaged around 6.8% per year. This was fueled by massive investments in infrastructure, manufacturing, and China’s global exports.
The Pandemic Impact (2020): Like the US, China was affected by the pandemic, but its economy still grew by 2.2% in 2020. This was largely due to its strict lockdown measures and quick recovery in manufacturing sector.
The Post-Pandemic Boom (2021): In 2021, China’s economy surged by 8.4%, driven by strong exports and government-led investment initiatives.
Slowing Down (2022-2025): In recent years, China’s growth has slowed, with rates dropping to around 5.2% in 2023 and projected to fall further to 4.5% by 2025. This slowdown is due to factors like an aging population, rising debt, property market crises, and trade tensions with the US.
Why Is China Growing Faster Than the US?
China’s growth rates are consistently higher than the U.S. for several reasons. One key reason is the stage of economic development. The US is a mature economy, meaning it’s already a highly developed nation. For such economies, growing at 2–3% per year is considered healthy. China, on the other hand, is still a developing country. It has a lot of room to grow, especially in areas like infrastructure, technology, and urbanization.
Additionally, China has a massive population, which provides a large and cost-effective labor force relative to the U.S. This has helped it become the “world’s factory” and the largest exporter globally. Another crucial factor is China’s government-led investments. The Chinese government plays a significant role in the economy by directing investments into key sectors like infrastructure, technology, and manufacturing. Lastly, China is the world’s largest exporter. Its ability to produce goods at large scale and sell them globally has been a major driver of its high economic growth rates.
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The Future Outlook for Both Economies
In 2025, both the U.S. and China are expected to see slower growth compared to their previous high growth rates. For the U.S., the growth rate is projected to hover around 2.2% to 2.8%. This moderate growth reflects a more stable and mature economy but also indicates that the country may face challenges in maintaining these growth rates in the face of rising national debt, trade tensions, and inflation.
China’s growth is expected to slow to 4.5% to 4.8% by 2025, but it is still higher than the U.S.
In summary, the U.S. and China have experienced different growth patterns over the past decade. The growth trend of these countries is driven by several factors including development stage, government policies, industrialization, and technology. China’s rapid growth in the earlier years was largely driven by industrialization and its massive exports globally. On the other hand, the U.S. economy has experienced steady growth, driven by advancements in innovation, technology, and the financial services sector.
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